As we exit 2024 and look back over the year since the ZEV Mandate was introduced, we can observe the impact it’s had on the car industry, thanks to SMMT published data.
Undoubtedly, some legacy manufacturers have heavily discounted their cars in order to meet ZEV quota’s, but these deals aren’t EV specific, and yet I continue to see remarks on social media that “EVs are discounted because no one wants them’, or that “they can’t even give them [EVs] away”.
People will source their information from whichever is their favoured publication or website, yet the reality lies in a case of market disruption denial by some quarters of our media, and subsequently some people's opinions.
Market disruption is a term that is rarely referred to, yet we’re in the midst of one. So what is a market disruption and why isn’t it being referenced?
A market disruption is where a new company or companies release a product or service that is a significant improvement over the incumbent, whilst offering something compelling and often more affordable, or where the consumer sees greater value.
To most people a market disruption isn’t apparent until it’s over, as was the case for smartphones. Apple being ridiculed for introducing the iPhone for its lack of buttons is an example. Some journalists couldn’t perceive their potential, yet we all have one now and can barely cope without it.
Often there is a lack of understanding and analysis about new technologies and the trajectory that they’re on. Sometimes fear of change plays its part by writing a good clickbait story.
Yet, experts and keen enthusiasts in their respective fields can see a disruption unfolding, and in the case of the car industry. This is where reliable data provided by the SMMT every month indicates that the car industry is in the midst of a market disruption.
Data is the source of truth, yet data taken out of context bends the truth, or obviates the truth, but source data does not lie.
Bending or obviating data for a specific agenda is not only being untruthful, but unhelpful in particular to the incumbents who’s products are being disrupted.
We now have almost a full year of 2024 data to look at, although SMMT have historical records going further back. So let’s take a look at 2019 and we’ll see where EV registrations were five years ago.
In January 2019, looking at year to date data, battery electric vehicle market share accounted for 0.8% of registrations. Diesel market share was at 28.7% and petrol market share was at 63%. PHEV was at 1.4% and HEV was at 4.6% (or 6% if you include mild hybrids).
In just five years, and interrupted by a pandemic with displaced labour and supply chain issues, the latest SMMT data for November 2024 shows battery electric vehicles accounted for 18.7% market share. Diesel market share has collapsed to 6.4%, petrol has declined to 54%, PHEV has increased to 8.5% and hybrids have risen to 13.4%.
The remarkable story is that electrification is accelerating, pure ICE vehicles are in decline, but EVs are the champion of electrified cars. In fact, EVs hold the number 2 spot for market share registrations.
And for November 2024 vs November 2023, battery electric vehicle market share rose from 15.6% to 25.1% which is a seismic increase.
The ZEV mandate is having an impact and the takeaway is that there is a growing appetite for electric cars provided they’re priced competitively with internal combustion cars. “Discounts drive market growth amid wider market contraction” is how the SMMT put it. And I reference you back to those earlier remarks, where the assumption that discounts were applied to EVs. It’s evident that discounts drive growth irrespective of power source, and more so with electric cars which offer cheaper, more refined motoring in a software focused product.
EVs have transitioned from an expensive rarity on our roads just a decade ago to the biggest driver in car manufacturing growth. It’s time that the public and media support the industry and buy electric vehicles.
